The simplest way to understand Iran in April 2026 is to stop reading the constitution and start watching who gives the orders that are actually obeyed.
This whole article weaves together speculation, cope and a lack of understanding of both Iran and American military capabilities.
Iran has only been pushed further away from reform, and so far stands as the winner of the war.
And no, continuing the war for long isn’t a possibility. Not just because of how unpopular it is. Nor because of economic reasons. Nor because Congress if not sooner than at the latest at the midterms will leash the administration.
But also because of a lack of capability.
America has already lost more planes than in any war since Vietnam. Our navy is huddled hundreds of miles away from Iran. And on top of that, most of Irans missile capabilities and stock remains.
So it’s either a JCPOA style deal (if that!) or slinking away in a few weeks and pretending that it’s “mission accomplished!”
“A negotiating team that has to phone home on every hard question is not a negotiating team. It is a messenger service.”
No, that was JD Vance who was calling not only Trump, but Netanyahu! This is open source information. This war is lost for the US. Iran “holds all of the cards”
The IRGC is no different than Hezbollah or Hamas. They will NEVER willingly surrender. They are every bit the religious fanatics the Mullahs are, and thus also don’t operate in a rational sense: their fanaticism dictates their every move.
They will fight, lie, and terrorize until they are extinguished in one form or another, either killed or captured and executed.
The blockade needs to choke off the lifeblood to their power and hopefully the people will be able to destroy them from within. There’s no neat way out of this. It’s going to be messy.
"It has become one because the men with guns now make the decisions the men in robes used to make, and the men in suits now read scripts the men with guns wrote."
Speaking of men in robes, does Vahidi have the Pope on speed-dial?
I rarely disagree with your excellent arguments and conclusions. I take issue only with a portion of your current analysis: "The reason is that soldiers understand cost-benefit analysis in a way ideologues often do not." Generally, this is a correct assessment. However, the IRGC is not just a military arm of a government. Its sole function is to ensure the theocracy endures and is defended. It is composed of true believers of the apocalyptic cult that is Shia. The IRGC's fanaticism likely rivals that of the Japanese in WWII. The IRGC are ideologues of the most committed kind. This degree of fanaticism should be a significant factor considered in any analysis.
The choice is that they may lose Kharg Island. Even the most radicalized IRGC members can understand what that means as far as Iran’s ability to recover as an economy. Oil or nuclear weapons? They have a choice.
I thought Kharg and Abu Musa Islands would already be occupied. Maybe up and coming? From what I understand, the IRGC has a bigger problem. Apparently, when oil wells stop pumping, within a couple of weeks they may never be productive again, at least without very expensive methods. They're cutting their own throats.
Usually, I don’t reply to ad hominem statements. Your statement has nothing to do with my reply.
Isn’t 100 million barrels a few days of normal production for them? And, if their present wells are destroyed due to water inclusion or natural chemical processes, then they’ll not be able to recover oil for years.
It also appears the USN is doing a good job of tracking Venezuelan oil tankers and seizing them. They’ll probably do a good job with Iran’s ships, too.
And last I saw, it hasn’t wrecked our economy. Strained a bit, yes. But no where near the strain it was in as of 1/25.
Read what I wrote. They don’t need to pump oil. There is a floating reserve of over 130 million barrels.
(In comparison, Russias production is 10 million barrels per month.)
And good luck finding dozens of ships spread throughout the Indian Ocean who constantly transfer oil to other ships: Often Indian or Chinese.
And of course, oil revenues isn’t Irans only means of income. It has a thriving industrial base and friends who have no problems keeping them supplied with food, money and whatever else they’d need.
No the economy is only “strained” so far but that’s because there has been huge reserves to take from.
Those are almost gone, and the IMF is already warning about a major worldwide recession.
(China are the only one who seem to be prepared lol!)
This blockade is a sign of weakness and throwing shit against the wall cause nothing works.
The longer it lasts, the weaker America’s position is, and the less likely it is that bases in the Gulf will be a permanent feature. Which is ironically one of Irans goals.
I think this factor cannot be dismissed. The IRGC still believe that the US is the great Satan and will not fold so easily. The blockade is a game changer though.
This is the moment the authoritarians and leftists pretend doesn’t exist—when regimes weaken, and real leverage appears. If juntas are rising inside Iran, that means the old order is cracking, and cracks are where change happens. If there are home-grown freedom fighters ready to push, I’m not losing sleep over using every tool available to help them. That’s why intelligence agencies exist—not for press conferences, but for moments like this. Call it Iran-Contra 2.0 if you want (I think we should). But at bottom, it is called backing liberty when it has a fighting chance. You don’t wait for tyrannies to reform themselves. You push them into the open grave.
That’s because Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was getting paid in January. Cut off the oil, blow up the police stations and IRGC HQs, bust the bridges and the power plants. Arm the freedom fighters. I give it 2 weeks.
“Well if they don’t get paid, they won’t fight he he!”
Would a marine go on strike and not go to war if you skipped a payday? I assume not, why on earth would the IRGC?
And why wouldn’t they get paid? Iran has a floating reserve of over 130 million barrel out on the sea. Blockade or no blockade, they’ll keep selling oil for at least six months.
(And even if you somehow magically blew up every tanker, the IRGC got plenty of other businesses they can use to make payroll.)
Blow up police stations? So kill more civilians, like when we killed 170 school girls.
You really think the police and IRGC haven’t moved to decentralized locations by now? Come on.
And as for “arming the freedom fighters”, what freedom fighters?
The Mossad had some networks there in January, but they all got rolled up. And many of the foreigners involved got expelled or killed.
So you’d have to start all over. And at a time when the country is more united than it has been in a long time.
Trump made it clear that he is serious and backed up his words by blowing a hole in the engine room of a flagged Iranian tanker attempting to get past the US Navy’s blockade. Heads up junta leadership.
That’s not “serious” that’s desperation. Iran retaliated with drone strikes on a USN ship. That was a warning - next time it will be a missile, which will do serious damage, if not sink it.
There are no current reports of drone strikes in the news. What Navy ship did you hear about and where did you hear it? Links? Iran puts out propaganda to demoralized the US. References please.
It’s obvious that we don’t control shit, despite engaging in what is basically piracy. And any attempt at doing that again, will result in more ship strikes or port installations.
In the meantime, the only ships that have gotten through the “blockade” are… Iranian.
More delusional maga cheerleading - It doesn't get much more meaningful than shutting down traffic, which they managed a month ago. Send more US Navy through, with all that will bring. Instead of 5 or 10 ships daily, you'll get zero - And they'll lash out across the region more psychotically. Could be fun ....
" Iran cannot actually close the strait in any operationally meaningful sense. It can threaten commercial traffic, carry out one-off terror attacks against tankers, mine discrete sections, and harass shipping with fast-attack craft. "
I am not. This should have been done after an actual provocation, without surprising allies - and competently. And Orange/Vance/etc. should not have been shitting on and threatening decades long allies for the last 14 months.
This Alex-whatever Substack is clearly just unhinged maga-boosting.
Like Jules Winfield said, "the man with the gun does the talkin'."
This whole article weaves together speculation, cope and a lack of understanding of both Iran and American military capabilities.
Iran has only been pushed further away from reform, and so far stands as the winner of the war.
And no, continuing the war for long isn’t a possibility. Not just because of how unpopular it is. Nor because of economic reasons. Nor because Congress if not sooner than at the latest at the midterms will leash the administration.
But also because of a lack of capability.
America has already lost more planes than in any war since Vietnam. Our navy is huddled hundreds of miles away from Iran. And on top of that, most of Irans missile capabilities and stock remains.
So it’s either a JCPOA style deal (if that!) or slinking away in a few weeks and pretending that it’s “mission accomplished!”
How is sending a Jew (Kushner) to negotiate with Iran logical?
More like, "How is sending a trump (or Witkoff or any other crony) logical?"
Spewing garbage propaganda again Alex?
“A negotiating team that has to phone home on every hard question is not a negotiating team. It is a messenger service.”
No, that was JD Vance who was calling not only Trump, but Netanyahu! This is open source information. This war is lost for the US. Iran “holds all of the cards”
Do better…
It's great that you never need to use toothpicks because you like Russian cock so much. Little Alex is poor at this, though.
Thank you for the thoughtful and intellectual response. (You couldn’t even figure out the country, you imbecile…)
What’s to figure out? Another 51st state “realist.”
No Mary, this post was about Iran, not Russia… 🙄
As long as taqiyya is in play, what does it matter WHO comes to the negotiating table?
Not if it’s an Islamic junta. They will murder nonMuslims too.
Vahidi and his colleagues taking eternal dirt naps sounds like a better option. Hard to run a terrorist state when you're dead.
6 sniper rounds and the people could try to take control of their government.
Great concise analysis that also suggests we’re seeing some very satisfying fractures in regime leadership.
The IRGC is no different than Hezbollah or Hamas. They will NEVER willingly surrender. They are every bit the religious fanatics the Mullahs are, and thus also don’t operate in a rational sense: their fanaticism dictates their every move.
They will fight, lie, and terrorize until they are extinguished in one form or another, either killed or captured and executed.
The blockade needs to choke off the lifeblood to their power and hopefully the people will be able to destroy them from within. There’s no neat way out of this. It’s going to be messy.
"It has become one because the men with guns now make the decisions the men in robes used to make, and the men in suits now read scripts the men with guns wrote."
Speaking of men in robes, does Vahidi have the Pope on speed-dial?
Excellent summation. Clear, answers questions, and makes sense of the current situation. I get it now!
So true, for us in the club.
No, it isn't. Too many unfounded assumptions and factual errors, too much partisan bullshit,
The world is buried in partisan bullshit and has been for many years.
I rarely disagree with your excellent arguments and conclusions. I take issue only with a portion of your current analysis: "The reason is that soldiers understand cost-benefit analysis in a way ideologues often do not." Generally, this is a correct assessment. However, the IRGC is not just a military arm of a government. Its sole function is to ensure the theocracy endures and is defended. It is composed of true believers of the apocalyptic cult that is Shia. The IRGC's fanaticism likely rivals that of the Japanese in WWII. The IRGC are ideologues of the most committed kind. This degree of fanaticism should be a significant factor considered in any analysis.
The choice is that they may lose Kharg Island. Even the most radicalized IRGC members can understand what that means as far as Iran’s ability to recover as an economy. Oil or nuclear weapons? They have a choice.
I thought Kharg and Abu Musa Islands would already be occupied. Maybe up and coming? From what I understand, the IRGC has a bigger problem. Apparently, when oil wells stop pumping, within a couple of weeks they may never be productive again, at least without very expensive methods. They're cutting their own throats.
Dumb.
Iran has a floating reserve of over 100 million barrels out on sea, out of reach.
They’ll last a lot longer with oil at 150$ than the American economy can.
Usually, I don’t reply to ad hominem statements. Your statement has nothing to do with my reply.
Isn’t 100 million barrels a few days of normal production for them? And, if their present wells are destroyed due to water inclusion or natural chemical processes, then they’ll not be able to recover oil for years.
It also appears the USN is doing a good job of tracking Venezuelan oil tankers and seizing them. They’ll probably do a good job with Iran’s ships, too.
And last I saw, it hasn’t wrecked our economy. Strained a bit, yes. But no where near the strain it was in as of 1/25.
Read what I wrote. They don’t need to pump oil. There is a floating reserve of over 130 million barrels.
(In comparison, Russias production is 10 million barrels per month.)
And good luck finding dozens of ships spread throughout the Indian Ocean who constantly transfer oil to other ships: Often Indian or Chinese.
And of course, oil revenues isn’t Irans only means of income. It has a thriving industrial base and friends who have no problems keeping them supplied with food, money and whatever else they’d need.
No the economy is only “strained” so far but that’s because there has been huge reserves to take from.
Those are almost gone, and the IMF is already warning about a major worldwide recession.
(China are the only one who seem to be prepared lol!)
This blockade is a sign of weakness and throwing shit against the wall cause nothing works.
The longer it lasts, the weaker America’s position is, and the less likely it is that bases in the Gulf will be a permanent feature. Which is ironically one of Irans goals.
I think this factor cannot be dismissed. The IRGC still believe that the US is the great Satan and will not fold so easily. The blockade is a game changer though.
This is the moment the authoritarians and leftists pretend doesn’t exist—when regimes weaken, and real leverage appears. If juntas are rising inside Iran, that means the old order is cracking, and cracks are where change happens. If there are home-grown freedom fighters ready to push, I’m not losing sleep over using every tool available to help them. That’s why intelligence agencies exist—not for press conferences, but for moments like this. Call it Iran-Contra 2.0 if you want (I think we should). But at bottom, it is called backing liberty when it has a fighting chance. You don’t wait for tyrannies to reform themselves. You push them into the open grave.
Why yes! Last time we sent them guns in January, they all (rightfully) got the wall.
But let’s try again hurr-durr!
That’s because Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was getting paid in January. Cut off the oil, blow up the police stations and IRGC HQs, bust the bridges and the power plants. Arm the freedom fighters. I give it 2 weeks.
This is again not just silly but stupid.
“Well if they don’t get paid, they won’t fight he he!”
Would a marine go on strike and not go to war if you skipped a payday? I assume not, why on earth would the IRGC?
And why wouldn’t they get paid? Iran has a floating reserve of over 130 million barrel out on the sea. Blockade or no blockade, they’ll keep selling oil for at least six months.
(And even if you somehow magically blew up every tanker, the IRGC got plenty of other businesses they can use to make payroll.)
Blow up police stations? So kill more civilians, like when we killed 170 school girls.
You really think the police and IRGC haven’t moved to decentralized locations by now? Come on.
And as for “arming the freedom fighters”, what freedom fighters?
The Mossad had some networks there in January, but they all got rolled up. And many of the foreigners involved got expelled or killed.
So you’d have to start all over. And at a time when the country is more united than it has been in a long time.
You’ll be upfront pushing, right? Right?
Trump made it clear that he is serious and backed up his words by blowing a hole in the engine room of a flagged Iranian tanker attempting to get past the US Navy’s blockade. Heads up junta leadership.
That’s not “serious” that’s desperation. Iran retaliated with drone strikes on a USN ship. That was a warning - next time it will be a missile, which will do serious damage, if not sink it.
There are no current reports of drone strikes in the news. What Navy ship did you hear about and where did you hear it? Links? Iran puts out propaganda to demoralized the US. References please.
Since you apparently can’t google:
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/iran-strikes-us-vessels-in-retaliation-for-cargo-ships-seizure-report/3911704
It’s obvious that we don’t control shit, despite engaging in what is basically piracy. And any attempt at doing that again, will result in more ship strikes or port installations.
In the meantime, the only ships that have gotten through the “blockade” are… Iranian.
Use another template already, Dick. You're tedious.
More delusional maga cheerleading - It doesn't get much more meaningful than shutting down traffic, which they managed a month ago. Send more US Navy through, with all that will bring. Instead of 5 or 10 ships daily, you'll get zero - And they'll lash out across the region more psychotically. Could be fun ....
" Iran cannot actually close the strait in any operationally meaningful sense. It can threaten commercial traffic, carry out one-off terror attacks against tankers, mine discrete sections, and harass shipping with fast-attack craft. "
Yeah, this article, as well as the comments are just full of copium-huffing and little understanding of neither Iran nor the war.
Cheering for the enemy?
Whose enemy? Israel’s enemy? The Epstein class’ enemy? They’re certainly not my enemy.
Nor America’s really.
I am not. This should have been done after an actual provocation, without surprising allies - and competently. And Orange/Vance/etc. should not have been shitting on and threatening decades long allies for the last 14 months.
This Alex-whatever Substack is clearly just unhinged maga-boosting.
Unhinged? Good Lord, check your mirror. What the hell are even doing here except to troll?
I looked at your bio to see what angle you were taking. Your comment about toddlers in leather told me everything I needed to know.
He was playing with some momma's basement nazis, trumpsucker. Yours is the profile of an eagle scout, outrage-monkey.
>>"Reporting close to his circle describes him as incapacitated to a degree that has not been publicly acknowledged."
Gee, for a moment there I thought you were writing about "President" Joe Biden.