The simplest way to understand Iran in April 2026 is to stop reading the constitution and start watching who gives the orders that are actually obeyed.
The IRGC is no different than Hezbollah or Hamas. They will NEVER willingly surrender. They are every bit the religious fanatics the Mullahs are, and thus also don’t operate in a rational sense: their fanaticism dictates their every move.
They will fight, lie, and terrorize until they are extinguished in one form or another, either killed or captured and executed.
The blockade needs to choke off the lifeblood to their power and hopefully the people will be able to destroy them from within. There’s no neat way out of this. It’s going to be messy.
"It has become one because the men with guns now make the decisions the men in robes used to make, and the men in suits now read scripts the men with guns wrote."
Speaking of men in robes, does Vahidi have the Pope on speed-dial?
I rarely disagree with your excellent arguments and conclusions. I take issue only with a portion of your current analysis: "The reason is that soldiers understand cost-benefit analysis in a way ideologues often do not." Generally, this is a correct assessment. However, the IRGC is not just a military arm of a government. Its sole function is to ensure the theocracy endures and is defended. It is composed of true believers of the apocalyptic cult that is Shia. The IRGC's fanaticism likely rivals that of the Japanese in WWII. The IRGC are ideologues of the most committed kind. This degree of fanaticism should be a significant factor considered in any analysis.
I think this factor cannot be dismissed. The IRGC still believe that the US is the great Satan and will not fold so easily. The blockade is a game changer though.
This is the moment the authoritarians and leftists pretend doesn’t exist—when regimes weaken, and real leverage appears. If juntas are rising inside Iran, that means the old order is cracking, and cracks are where change happens. If there are home-grown freedom fighters ready to push, I’m not losing sleep over using every tool available to help them. That’s why intelligence agencies exist—not for press conferences, but for moments like this. Call it Iran-Contra 2.0 if you want (I think we should). But at bottom, it is called backing liberty when it has a fighting chance. You don’t wait for tyrannies to reform themselves. You push them into the open grave.
More delusional maga cheerleading - It doesn't get much more meaningful than shutting down traffic, which they managed a month ago. Send more US Navy through, with all that will bring. Instead of 5 or 10 ships daily, you'll get zero - And they'll lash out across the region more psychotically. Could be fun ....
" Iran cannot actually close the strait in any operationally meaningful sense. It can threaten commercial traffic, carry out one-off terror attacks against tankers, mine discrete sections, and harass shipping with fast-attack craft. "
I am not. This should have been done after an actual provocation, without surprising allies - and competently. And Orange/Vance/etc. should not have been shitting on and threatening decades long allies for the last 14 months.
This Alex-whatever Substack is clearly just unhinged maga-boosting.
Since, at least, Tsun-Tsu we've known that the fulcrum of any negotiation is the priorities of the leaders on both sides. The Iranian military has different goals, objectives and needs than ten octogenarians in robes.
Has anyone identified the new priorities and deal breakers? If anyone has, nobody is talking about it.
" Vahidi is not a mystic. He is a professional. So are Ahmadian and Ghalibaf."
This statement is doing a lot of lifting, and I'm not sure what it's based on. They seem much more analogous to the SS or, even closer, to the Japanese warlords who were ready to carry on in the face of the fire bombings, submarine blockade, and even nuclear attack.
Their Achilles heel seems to be an unprecedented amount of human and electronic intelligence, and an AI aided analysis team that can process it all and act on it. Eventually, the Americans and Israelis are just as likely to say screw it and take them out.
The IRGC is not likely to voluntarily give up the power and privilege of the last five decades. The leadership has probably already moved their money and family out of Iran. They are flooding the world with propaganda designed to make the US back off. We will see who wins.
Trump gambled that a massive airstrike would cause the Iranian people to revolt and overthrow the govt. It didn't happen. As you point out, regime change has just led to a military dictatorship instead of one run by religious fanatics. That may indeed be a positive.
As far as the war goes, Iran has prepared to fight this war for years and will if need be. Trump needs to get the fikk out of there and save as much face as he can. The longer we f--- around over there the less popular the war will become at home.
It's time to recognize that the war has already been won politically, if not militarily. The other Sunni Arab countries are totally pissed at Iran for attacking their territory and are united against Iran. Trump has pushed Israel off to the sidelines and has shown it to the world as a rogue state. Mission accomplished!
Reports have been that the IRGC controlled maybe 50% of the Iranian economy, so once the theocratic leadership was decapitated, it is no surprise that the IRGC would assume leadership. But since the primary source of revenue is oil, it shouldn't be very hard to bankrupt the IRGC by stopping the flow.
I expected we would take over Kharg Island, through which 90% of the oil flows, but President Trump is achieving the same effect with much less risk by a naval blockade. The main challenge is to maintain that blockade for long enough (months?) to leave the IRGC penniless and powerless, while the Democrat media complain incessantly about fuel prices here at home. Can Mr Trump keep up the pressure?
The IRGC is no different than Hezbollah or Hamas. They will NEVER willingly surrender. They are every bit the religious fanatics the Mullahs are, and thus also don’t operate in a rational sense: their fanaticism dictates their every move.
They will fight, lie, and terrorize until they are extinguished in one form or another, either killed or captured and executed.
The blockade needs to choke off the lifeblood to their power and hopefully the people will be able to destroy them from within. There’s no neat way out of this. It’s going to be messy.
"It has become one because the men with guns now make the decisions the men in robes used to make, and the men in suits now read scripts the men with guns wrote."
Speaking of men in robes, does Vahidi have the Pope on speed-dial?
How dare he say woke Popey peace stuff!
JD is right (always) - Pope Leo "should be careful when discussing theology."
Hint, Anecdote-Einstein; Subtitles
Excellent summation. Clear, answers questions, and makes sense of the current situation. I get it now!
So true, for us in the club.
No, it isn't. Too many unfounded assumptions and factual errors, too much partisan bullshit,
The world is buried in partisan bullshit and has been for many years.
I rarely disagree with your excellent arguments and conclusions. I take issue only with a portion of your current analysis: "The reason is that soldiers understand cost-benefit analysis in a way ideologues often do not." Generally, this is a correct assessment. However, the IRGC is not just a military arm of a government. Its sole function is to ensure the theocracy endures and is defended. It is composed of true believers of the apocalyptic cult that is Shia. The IRGC's fanaticism likely rivals that of the Japanese in WWII. The IRGC are ideologues of the most committed kind. This degree of fanaticism should be a significant factor considered in any analysis.
I think this factor cannot be dismissed. The IRGC still believe that the US is the great Satan and will not fold so easily. The blockade is a game changer though.
This is the moment the authoritarians and leftists pretend doesn’t exist—when regimes weaken, and real leverage appears. If juntas are rising inside Iran, that means the old order is cracking, and cracks are where change happens. If there are home-grown freedom fighters ready to push, I’m not losing sleep over using every tool available to help them. That’s why intelligence agencies exist—not for press conferences, but for moments like this. Call it Iran-Contra 2.0 if you want (I think we should). But at bottom, it is called backing liberty when it has a fighting chance. You don’t wait for tyrannies to reform themselves. You push them into the open grave.
Use another template already, Dick. You're tedious.
More delusional maga cheerleading - It doesn't get much more meaningful than shutting down traffic, which they managed a month ago. Send more US Navy through, with all that will bring. Instead of 5 or 10 ships daily, you'll get zero - And they'll lash out across the region more psychotically. Could be fun ....
" Iran cannot actually close the strait in any operationally meaningful sense. It can threaten commercial traffic, carry out one-off terror attacks against tankers, mine discrete sections, and harass shipping with fast-attack craft. "
Cheering for the enemy?
I am not. This should have been done after an actual provocation, without surprising allies - and competently. And Orange/Vance/etc. should not have been shitting on and threatening decades long allies for the last 14 months.
This Alex-whatever Substack is clearly just unhinged maga-boosting.
>>"Reporting close to his circle describes him as incapacitated to a degree that has not been publicly acknowledged."
Gee, for a moment there I thought you were writing about "President" Joe Biden.
Since, at least, Tsun-Tsu we've known that the fulcrum of any negotiation is the priorities of the leaders on both sides. The Iranian military has different goals, objectives and needs than ten octogenarians in robes.
Has anyone identified the new priorities and deal breakers? If anyone has, nobody is talking about it.
" Vahidi is not a mystic. He is a professional. So are Ahmadian and Ghalibaf."
This statement is doing a lot of lifting, and I'm not sure what it's based on. They seem much more analogous to the SS or, even closer, to the Japanese warlords who were ready to carry on in the face of the fire bombings, submarine blockade, and even nuclear attack.
Their Achilles heel seems to be an unprecedented amount of human and electronic intelligence, and an AI aided analysis team that can process it all and act on it. Eventually, the Americans and Israelis are just as likely to say screw it and take them out.
Iran gas become a military dictatorship because we killed all the men in robes.
So next we kill all the men in uniforms.
Easy peasy
Seems a likely progression.
The IRGC is not likely to voluntarily give up the power and privilege of the last five decades. The leadership has probably already moved their money and family out of Iran. They are flooding the world with propaganda designed to make the US back off. We will see who wins.
Trump gambled that a massive airstrike would cause the Iranian people to revolt and overthrow the govt. It didn't happen. As you point out, regime change has just led to a military dictatorship instead of one run by religious fanatics. That may indeed be a positive.
As far as the war goes, Iran has prepared to fight this war for years and will if need be. Trump needs to get the fikk out of there and save as much face as he can. The longer we f--- around over there the less popular the war will become at home.
It's time to recognize that the war has already been won politically, if not militarily. The other Sunni Arab countries are totally pissed at Iran for attacking their territory and are united against Iran. Trump has pushed Israel off to the sidelines and has shown it to the world as a rogue state. Mission accomplished!
Reports have been that the IRGC controlled maybe 50% of the Iranian economy, so once the theocratic leadership was decapitated, it is no surprise that the IRGC would assume leadership. But since the primary source of revenue is oil, it shouldn't be very hard to bankrupt the IRGC by stopping the flow.
I expected we would take over Kharg Island, through which 90% of the oil flows, but President Trump is achieving the same effect with much less risk by a naval blockade. The main challenge is to maintain that blockade for long enough (months?) to leave the IRGC penniless and powerless, while the Democrat media complain incessantly about fuel prices here at home. Can Mr Trump keep up the pressure?
Add in the November elections and the answer is probably no. Unfortunately.
Vahidi has been the key player, and I'm glad to see that recognized. Let's hope he's rational.