Well reasoned. The USAF is preparing for a Pacific war by developing suitable logistics. The Chinese must be aware and that ought to suggest caution. The new drone companion concept is being developed to adjust for combat against larger numbers. We are studying the Chinese and they us. As your article suggests the risk balance remains more uncertain. Our war games revealed weaknesses that are being corrected. That helps deterrence.
The war games, as I understand them, generally or exclusively start with a Chinese attack. This assumes that President Trump, or the future President Vance, wants to be remembered as a President who permitted the next Pearl Harbor or 9/11.
I don’t think we get to hear about any war games where we attack first. China is terribly vulnerable to a first strike. If diplomacy is failing and the intel indicates the likely inevitability of war, a President who didn’t strike first would be derelict in his duties.
I know someone will say that we would never strike first. Tell that to Iran. The areas involved in the first island chain are enormous, but many of the relevant distances are quite short. Whoever strikes first will be at great advantage, at least initially. The Chinese are not ignorant to this. It will figure into their calculus.
Well reasoned. The USAF is preparing for a Pacific war by developing suitable logistics. The Chinese must be aware and that ought to suggest caution. The new drone companion concept is being developed to adjust for combat against larger numbers. We are studying the Chinese and they us. As your article suggests the risk balance remains more uncertain. Our war games revealed weaknesses that are being corrected. That helps deterrence.
Thank you for thus excellent essay!
The war games, as I understand them, generally or exclusively start with a Chinese attack. This assumes that President Trump, or the future President Vance, wants to be remembered as a President who permitted the next Pearl Harbor or 9/11.
I don’t think we get to hear about any war games where we attack first. China is terribly vulnerable to a first strike. If diplomacy is failing and the intel indicates the likely inevitability of war, a President who didn’t strike first would be derelict in his duties.
I know someone will say that we would never strike first. Tell that to Iran. The areas involved in the first island chain are enormous, but many of the relevant distances are quite short. Whoever strikes first will be at great advantage, at least initially. The Chinese are not ignorant to this. It will figure into their calculus.