SHOCK: The Unintended Consequence of Dobbs will be an Increase in America's Abortion Rate
While Dobbs v. Jackson is a huge victory for constitutional scholars, the rule of law, and democracy it might end up being a huge win for abortion advocates as well.
The lasting impact of Dobbs v. Jackson will likely be an increased awareness of the efficacy, safety, and availability of the abortion pill - awareness that will undoubtedly increase the nation’s abortion rate. Prior to Dobbs, America’s abortion rate was 14.3 per 1000 for women aged 15 to 44 experts are privately predicting it will climb to 20 per 1000 (similar to California’s abortion rate). While the Dobbs decision corrected 50+ years of flawed judicial thinking it will ultimately result in a higher abortion rate.
Twenty years ago the FDA approved a safe and effective abortion pill marketed in the United States as Mifeprex1 (aka - the abortion pill). During the Covid-19 pandemic, health officials around the world allowed women to receive the pills by mail and in December the FDA determined that it was safe for American women to take them from the comfort of their own homes. The agency’s decision to permanently allow delivery by mail did not receive much fanfare but it was a huge expansion in abortion access and its timing could not be better for abortion advocates.
Prior to Dobbs, Red states kept abortion rates relatively low by implementing burdensome regulations on the industry. For example, regulations on the design of abortion clinics in Texas2 resulted in there being 10 times fewer facilities in the state than in California, and as a result, the abortion rate in Texas is half of California’s rate. In a typical year, 9.5 out of 1,000 women in Texas (aged 15-44)3 receive an abortion compared with 19.2 in California4. Of the 60,000 (+/-5,000) abortions performed in Texas, only 54% of them are performed by taking the abortion pill.5
More than twenty years ago the FDA determined the Abortion Pill was safe and effective but as a result of political pressure, the agency required women to appear in person at abortion clinics (sometimes twice) in order to receive the two pills. The FDA has approved the use of the pills for up to ten weeks after conception but some doctors prescribe the pills plus an extra dose (off label) up to fifteen weeks after conception - almost 85% of abortions performed today could be done using the abortion pill - and with increased availability that percentage will only increase.
Six months ago the FDA finally determined6 that it was safe for women to receive abortion pills by mail and take them at home. The agency’s decision to permanently allow abortion pills to be delivered by mail did not receive much fanfare but advocates correctly saw it as a huge expansion in access to abortion.7 Pregnant women across the country are going online to order abortion pills from companies like HeyJane8, AbortionOnDemand9, Choix10, Just the Pill11, and Carafem12 for prices ranging from $40 to $500. Companies like AidAccess13 even provide pregnant women in states that ban abortion-by-mail access to international doctors and ship Mifepristone from India for $110. This is a genie that cannot be put back in the bottle.
Approximately 90% of the 1,000,000+/- abortions in the United States each year could be accomplished safely by taking the abortion pill. Prior to the FDA’s decision to allow abortion by mail only 54% of abortions were performed medically using Mifepristone - primarily because women were forced to go to a clinic in person - sometimes twice just to take the pills. It is very likely that as more and more women learn that they can get an abortion without visiting an abortion clinic more of them will choose to abort their babies - driving the abortion rate higher and higher.
Each year approximately 150,000+/- women seeking an abortion can’t take the abortion pill for a variety of reasons including simply waiting too long to seek treatment. These women must receive a procedural abortion in a clinical setting. Prior to Dobbs, it was becoming more and more difficult to obtain a procedural abortion but ironically, as a result of Dobbs, more and more employers are providing abortion benefits to their staff and their dependents. For example, Dick’s Sporting Goods has agreed to pay $4,000 to more than 150,000 employees and dependents who must travel to obtain an abortion. The benefit is open-ended meaning that an employee from North Dakota could schedule an abortion over Thanksgiving in Miami and another over New Year’s Eve in New York City - all of which would be paid for by their employer. Most major corporations are implementing similar employee abortion travel benefits including Levis, Gap, Nike, Amazon, Yelp, and Patagonia.14 Women that just last year didn’t have the resources to obtain a procedural abortion have more options and resources than ever before.
I predict that over the next five years we’ll see a precipitous rise in the abortion rate and a marked decline in the fertility rate despite what abortion advocates are claiming. What do you think? Love your comments.
https://www.earlyoptionpill.com/how-do-i-get-mifeprex/
https://urbannext.net/architecture-and-abortion/
https://abort73.com/abortion_facts/states/texas/
https://abort73.com/abortion_facts/states/california/
https://www.guttmacher.org/article/2022/02/medication-abortion-now-accounts-more-half-all-us-abortions
https://www.fda.gov/drugs/postmarket-drug-safety-information-patients-and-providers/mifeprex-mifepristone-information
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/fda-permanently-allow-abortion-pills-mail-major-win-advocates-n1286183
https://www.heyjane.co/
https://abortionondemand.org/
https://www.mychoix.co/
https://www.justthepill.com/
https://carafem.org/
https://aidaccess.org/en/
https://footwearnews.com/2022/business/athletic-outdoor/dicks-sporting-goods-ceo-pay-abortions-travel-access-1203304705/