The October Jobs Report: Disconcerting Data

The recent October jobs report has raised eyebrows and concerns among many, including seasoned analysts and entrepreneurs. The data not only suggests a looming recession but also raises questions about the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) initial data accuracy. Let's dissect the report meticulously, drawing on the logical and structured approach that is essential in both entrepreneurship and politics.

1. The Headlines: A Tale of Two Surveys

• The Establishment survey reported a gain of 150,000 jobs.

• In stark contrast, the Household survey reported a loss of 348,000 jobs. This is the most significant drop since April 2020, during the height of the COVID-19 lockdowns.

• The divergence between these two surveys is unprecedented.

• The BLS' firm birth/death model, which estimates the net number of jobs created by newly opened and closed businesses, added 412,000 jobs in October. There's a strong possibility these jobs don't exist.

2. Revisions and Recession Indicators

• The establishment survey has been consistently revised downwards, with 8 of the 9 months in 2023 seeing downward revisions.

• Approximately 25% of all jobs we initially believed were added this year turned out to be non-existent.

• Historically, such patterns were observed leading into recessions.

3. Job Creation: A Closer Look

• Over a third of the jobs the establishment survey claims are being created are in the government sector. This ratio is unsustainable. A healthy economy requires multiple private-sector jobs to support each government job through tax revenue.

4. The Manufacturing Conundrum

• Job losses are most pronounced in the manufacturing sector.

• Regional Federal banks and Purchasing Managers' Indexes (PMIs) had already indicated that this would be a challenging month for the sector.

• Historically, downturns in manufacturing often precede broader labor market recessions.

5. Labor Force Participation: The Shrinking Pool

• The labor force participation rate decreased last month.

• The increase of 146,000 unemployed individuals wasn't because more people were actively seeking work.

• The number of people not in the labor force surged, now standing at approximately 5 million above pre-pandemic levels.

• By most metrics, the labor market hasn't returned to its pre-pandemic trend.

6. The Real Unemployment Rate

• Between 4.7 and 6.3 million people are potentially being excluded from the official unemployment rate calculation.

• When accounting for these individuals, the unemployment rate could be between 6.5% and 7.4%.

7. Employment Trends: Native vs. Foreign Born

• Native-born employment remains below its pre-pandemic trend.

• In contrast, foreign-born employment has seen a recovery.

8. The Student Loan Bailout Paradox

• College graduates have largely recovered to pre-pandemic employment levels.

• Despite this, there's a push from the White House for a student loan bailout.

9. Earnings vs. Inflation

• While paychecks might have grown in October, purchasing power did not. Inflation outpaced weekly earnings growth, meaning real wages remain stagnant.

In Conclusion: The latest BLS data suggests that the economy might not have added any jobs in October, with previous months seeing downward revisions. Manufacturing appears to be in recession, and it's likely the broader economy will follow suit in the upcoming months. The expanding government job sector and stagnant real wages further compound these concerns.