James Talarico (CIS) recently traded near 65¢ on Polymarket while Ken Paxton traded near 35¢, and a price like that invites a familiar complaint: some rich partisan has simply bought the number to manufacture a headline that tells the country the race is settled.
It’s just gambling wearing a different costume. May as well be a lottery. People who like to gamble like this are not exactly the people we should be listening to.
This entire election in every state, town, and county, will be determined by one thing and one thing only: turnout. And there’s not a poll or a fancy gambling app that can reliably predict that.
Polymarket cannot determine an election any more than buying a lottery ticket determines your wealth. It’s gambling and a billionaire can easily sway the market. Talarico has big donors from CA and NY, not Texas, who can easily sway their candidate to look winnable. As far as Brazil is concerned, Polymarket may need to hold off on paying the winners until this has been decided. The Election Committee there has ruled the SC Judge had no authority to grant a voting extension.
Alex, I get this. I love it when you nerd out! But I wonder how many of your followers do. I know you would be condescending to begin or end this piece with a simple statement of your argument in sort of see Jack run terms, but few people are as smart as you. I know it’s genetic.
It’s just gambling wearing a different costume. May as well be a lottery. People who like to gamble like this are not exactly the people we should be listening to.
This entire election in every state, town, and county, will be determined by one thing and one thing only: turnout. And there’s not a poll or a fancy gambling app that can reliably predict that.
DITTO ................
Polymarket cannot determine an election any more than buying a lottery ticket determines your wealth. It’s gambling and a billionaire can easily sway the market. Talarico has big donors from CA and NY, not Texas, who can easily sway their candidate to look winnable. As far as Brazil is concerned, Polymarket may need to hold off on paying the winners until this has been decided. The Election Committee there has ruled the SC Judge had no authority to grant a voting extension.
Alex, I get this. I love it when you nerd out! But I wonder how many of your followers do. I know you would be condescending to begin or end this piece with a simple statement of your argument in sort of see Jack run terms, but few people are as smart as you. I know it’s genetic.
Analysis last week of Kalshi: Fake Polls and Prediction Markets
On Kalshi, Paxton’s Price is 36. The Facts Say 47.
https://directorblue.substack.com/p/fake-polls-and-prediction-markets
Paxton Landslide after they're gutflush of Hogwash accusing courtroom fiasco everyone knows who is Who and What is WHAAAT