I’ve ignored polls for the last decade, 2016 being the tell for what I knew intuitively. My ex is a statistician and she taught me how that few polls use proper methodology, and how many are blatantly manipulated. Your article hit them all. Great work, thank you!
" The Reuters/Ipsos final national survey had Harris at 44% to Trump’s 43%. The RealClearPolitics polling average had the race within the margin of error in all seven swing states. Trump then won 312 electoral votes to Harris’s 226 and carried the popular vote 49.81% to 48.34%. He won every Blue Wall state. The market was right; the polling industry was, once again, wrong." So you're saying the results were within the margin of error of the polls?
Well we all know why 2020 election had the most errors—because 2020 was the most corrupt election ever with fake mail-in ballots and voting machines manipulation. Biden getting 81 million was laughable. The Dems cheated to the point of being so obviously manipulated. Maybe sometime soon many more of those involved will be indicted. We all knew Biden did not win.
The lesson is Hayek with a betting slip: dispersed knowledge beats centralized arrogance. Pollsters pretend that 800 weighted respondents and a mystical likely-voter model can capture reality. Markets aggregate thousands of judgments from people willing to risk capital. That does not make prediction markets perfect. It makes them accountable. The polling cartel keeps missing in the same direction, then blames “shy voters,” “turnout surprises,” or “methodological challenges” while cashing the next check. A trader who is wrong gets punished immediately. A pollster who is wrong gets invited on television. You are a fool not to let the free market inform decisions over the credentialed fog machine.
I’ve never trusted the polls because I’m no fool. You stated so clearly these pollsters real objective—to collect a check and excuse their incorrect outcome. Their polls are meant to favor whomever is paying to conduct the poll.
Pollsters like Journalists have done much damage to their credibility. Their efforts to have the tail wag the dog has been obvious for many years.
I’ve ignored polls for the last decade, 2016 being the tell for what I knew intuitively. My ex is a statistician and she taught me how that few polls use proper methodology, and how many are blatantly manipulated. Your article hit them all. Great work, thank you!
" The Reuters/Ipsos final national survey had Harris at 44% to Trump’s 43%. The RealClearPolitics polling average had the race within the margin of error in all seven swing states. Trump then won 312 electoral votes to Harris’s 226 and carried the popular vote 49.81% to 48.34%. He won every Blue Wall state. The market was right; the polling industry was, once again, wrong." So you're saying the results were within the margin of error of the polls?
Well we all know why 2020 election had the most errors—because 2020 was the most corrupt election ever with fake mail-in ballots and voting machines manipulation. Biden getting 81 million was laughable. The Dems cheated to the point of being so obviously manipulated. Maybe sometime soon many more of those involved will be indicted. We all knew Biden did not win.
The lesson is Hayek with a betting slip: dispersed knowledge beats centralized arrogance. Pollsters pretend that 800 weighted respondents and a mystical likely-voter model can capture reality. Markets aggregate thousands of judgments from people willing to risk capital. That does not make prediction markets perfect. It makes them accountable. The polling cartel keeps missing in the same direction, then blames “shy voters,” “turnout surprises,” or “methodological challenges” while cashing the next check. A trader who is wrong gets punished immediately. A pollster who is wrong gets invited on television. You are a fool not to let the free market inform decisions over the credentialed fog machine.
I’ve never trusted the polls because I’m no fool. You stated so clearly these pollsters real objective—to collect a check and excuse their incorrect outcome. Their polls are meant to favor whomever is paying to conduct the poll.