The Oracle: The Substack Writer Who Nailed 2024 Shares His Midterm Forecast
The Oracle Reveals Captain K’s 2026 Predictions, Narrow House Loss, Senate Toss Up
Captain Seth Keshel was the only analyst to call Trump’s sweep of every swing state in 2024. While most forecasters hedged, he made a concrete claim and stood by it. Now he returns with an early 2026 midterm map that cuts through noise and wishcasting alike. His model shows Democrats likely taking the House, but narrowly, with 220 to 229 seats at most, and a Blue Tsunami under 5%. The Senate, he argues, is structurally constrained, a coin flip at best, with markets overstating the odds of a Democratic landslide.
What distinguishes this forecast is not tone but structure. Keshel grounds his analysis in voter registration trends, turnout realities, and the historical gravity of midterms. He separates online narratives from the 6 to 8% of persuadable voters who actually decide competitive districts. He identifies where Republicans are vulnerable, where Democrats are exposed, and where prediction markets are mispriced. It is not cheerleading. It is probabilistic reasoning anchored in data.
The full breakdown appears in The Oracle by Polymarket, the first news product built around the world’s largest prediction market. Each week, The Oracle combs through 1,000+ live markets to extract signal from noise, testing pundit claims against trader conviction. In an era of algorithmic outrage and collapsing trust, prediction markets reward accuracy and punish fantasy. If you want to see how real money is pricing the 2026 battlefield, and why Captain K believes the wave narrative is overstated, subscribe to The Oracle and start viewing politics the way traders do, in probabilities rather than slogans.
Midterms don’t hinge only on models. They hinge on mood. The wild card is whether spring and summer unrest explodes again in deep-blue cities the way it did in 2020. If crime spikes, protests turn destructive, and governors hesitate while mayors equivocate, suburban persuadables will not parse turnout spreadsheets — they’ll react viscerally. Law and order still moves swing voters. If blue-state leadership appears unable or unwilling to maintain basic civic stability, that becomes a national referendum. Prediction markets can price probabilities, but televised chaos rewrites them overnight. The X factor isn’t polling. It’s whether America sees another summer of burning storefronts.
Totally agree, Richard..! Volatility is the name of the game right now and if the lefty loonies turn protests violent and destructive Americans will not be voting out the Trump agenda of law and order..