Totally agree, Richard..! Volatility is the name of the game right now and if the lefty loonies turn protests violent and destructive Americans will not be voting out the Trump agenda of law and order..
Midterms don’t hinge only on models. They hinge on mood. The wild card is whether spring and summer unrest explodes again in deep-blue cities the way it did in 2020. If crime spikes, protests turn destructive, and governors hesitate while mayors equivocate, suburban persuadables will not parse turnout spreadsheets — they’ll react viscerally. Law and order still moves swing voters. If blue-state leadership appears unable or unwilling to maintain basic civic stability, that becomes a national referendum. Prediction markets can price probabilities, but televised chaos rewrites them overnight. The X factor isn’t polling. It’s whether America sees another summer of burning storefronts.
Your answer seems correct to me, a rational human. Two things make me equivocate. 1. There is a scary number of people whose facility with logic goes this far: “If there’s burning and looting during Trump’s presidency, the solution is to go back a party who had no burning and looting”
2. Many Republicans are feeling like spanking the Senate for their poor production, especially the outright intransigence on the Save Act.
I fashion myself more rational than the people in #1, but I’m not sure I’m going to be able to hold my nose and vote for some republicans who are counterproductive.
Never forgetting, of course, James Carville’s, “It’s the economy, Stupid.” We need the Trump tariff rebates.
Totally agree, Richard..! Volatility is the name of the game right now and if the lefty loonies turn protests violent and destructive Americans will not be voting out the Trump agenda of law and order..
Midterms don’t hinge only on models. They hinge on mood. The wild card is whether spring and summer unrest explodes again in deep-blue cities the way it did in 2020. If crime spikes, protests turn destructive, and governors hesitate while mayors equivocate, suburban persuadables will not parse turnout spreadsheets — they’ll react viscerally. Law and order still moves swing voters. If blue-state leadership appears unable or unwilling to maintain basic civic stability, that becomes a national referendum. Prediction markets can price probabilities, but televised chaos rewrites them overnight. The X factor isn’t polling. It’s whether America sees another summer of burning storefronts.
Your answer seems correct to me, a rational human. Two things make me equivocate. 1. There is a scary number of people whose facility with logic goes this far: “If there’s burning and looting during Trump’s presidency, the solution is to go back a party who had no burning and looting”
2. Many Republicans are feeling like spanking the Senate for their poor production, especially the outright intransigence on the Save Act.
I fashion myself more rational than the people in #1, but I’m not sure I’m going to be able to hold my nose and vote for some republicans who are counterproductive.