Xi invoked the “Thucydides Trap” because Beijing needs Americans to believe in it. That is the tell. If the U.S. accepts the frame, China wins without firing a shot: we manage decline, tolerate Taiwan pressure, accept industrial surrender, and call cowardice “stability.” Trump rejected the script by showing up with the cards: energy dominance, manufacturing revival, AI chips, Boeing, Apple, NVIDIA, food leverage, oil leverage, and a widening GDP advantage. Western liberals heard Greek history. Xi was running influence ops. Hanson called it bankrupt. Good. The trap was never Thucydides. The trap was believing CCP propaganda.
I believe you're one of the most intellectually sharp people I've ever followed. Your ability to explain complex issues with clarity is remarkable. I truly admire your mind.
Interesting and thoughtful take on this - thank you 🙏
Xi (and China in general) does not do anything in the diplomatic realm by accident
This entire visit was a very carefully-crafted show aimed at an Asian audience with a very clear “suite” of goals:
Play to Trump’s ego in terms of pageantry, knowing that this would keep him distracted (as his social media posts afterwards demonstrated)
Carefully and subtly place Trump in the role of “supplicant” [edited to add: it is absolutely not an accident that “orange chicken” was a part of the banquet menu - a not-very-subtle reference to TACO]
Use economic smoke-and-mirror “promises” to gain diplomatic ground vis-a-vis Taiwan specifically, and Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific region more broadly
In terms of those specific goals, I’m calling the summit a “win” for China
Nvidia is locked out of the Chinese market (which can honestly be read as both good and bad)
Boeing was banking on the sale of 500 jets, and got a very vague (at best) promise of 200. Trump announced the 200 figure as a win, while the market was punishing Boeing both for not getting the 500 sale and for not getting anything actually *binding* even for the 200 jets promised
Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea were watching this all play out in light of the US drawing down munitions in Asia to support the war in Iran while also putting an arms sale to Taiwan on ice
The ASEAN countries saw this as China flexing their regional soft-power muscles while the US continues to back away in both economic and military terms
In purely propaganda terms, China wins this round, regardless of the accuracy (or not) of the Thucydides framing Xi is so fond of
I am no fan of China’s regime by any stretch. I *do* have a grudging respect for their ability to exercise soft power and diplomatic influence without (so far) actually firing a shot.
If China “wins” in the region, it won’t be because they beat the US in a military face-off - they don’t want *that* war any more than we do. If they win, it will be because of US political short-sightedness, indifference, and diplomatic isolation resulting from a chaotic (at best) foreign policy
“Consider what the framework asks Americans to believe in May 2026, and then consider the facts on the ground. Trump arrived in Beijing accompanied by Elon Musk, Tim Cook, Larry Fink, and Boeing’s Kelly Ortberg, the visible cohort of American technological and industrial dominance. The economic mass he brought into the room is staggering. “
Joe Biden on the other hand arrived in China accompanied by his dopey son Hunter. Let that settle in.
I think Victor Davis Hanson is one of the most amazing people in our country. He is one of the few people I would believe anything he says.
Would someone enlighten me? If we are headed toward a $32.4 trillion GDP, why are we $37T in debt? Why are we in debt at all? Why do we give money to countries that hate us, and why are we giving any money to anyone? I read that our daily debt is $1.6 billion. Why? No more money to anyone.
Bill Clinton, despicable as he is, left us with a balanced budget. Are the Republicans incapable of that?
Off track — why is the Air Force going to buy thousands of radios because two pilots recently crashed? Would not a hundred suffice?
“Bill Clinton, despicable as he is, left us with a balanced budget. Are the Republicans incapable of that?”
Setting aside the myth of Clinton’s balanced budget for a minute - Rush Limbaugh explained that farce on the radio decades ago - I would point out that democrats were not actively trying to assassinate the President for working with Republicans.
The Balanced Budget Act of 1997 followed on the heals of revenue expansion due to the 1990s dot-com technology boom, and the defense spending cuts made possible by the end of the Cold War/collapse of the Soviet Union - i.e. the peace dividend.
However, while the government ran a surplus on paper, the national debt itself actually continued to grow. Those surpluses only offset the publicly held debt, but the total gross national debt continued to increase under Clinton.
Speaking of despicable democrats, the last 47 years of Iranian terror can be laid squarely at the feet of Jimmy Carter. While the short attention span main stream media is complaining about the current cost of a gallon of gasoline, not one of them is asking about the catastrophically colossal cost of Carter kicking off the Iranian Islamic Revolution in the first place.
Thanks, Shawn, for the explanation. I was not listening to Rush in the 90s, so I would have missed his explanation of Clinton’s budget.
I do remember how gas was rationed during Carter’s term, and we could only buy it on alternate days, depending on the last number of our license plate. His presidency was a nightmare. He was such a phony that when he travelled, he would carry an empty suitcase to make him look humble.
It was terrible that they held 66 Americans hostage for 444 days, and how they were released the day Reagan was inaugurated.
Xi invoked the “Thucydides Trap” because Beijing needs Americans to believe in it. That is the tell. If the U.S. accepts the frame, China wins without firing a shot: we manage decline, tolerate Taiwan pressure, accept industrial surrender, and call cowardice “stability.” Trump rejected the script by showing up with the cards: energy dominance, manufacturing revival, AI chips, Boeing, Apple, NVIDIA, food leverage, oil leverage, and a widening GDP advantage. Western liberals heard Greek history. Xi was running influence ops. Hanson called it bankrupt. Good. The trap was never Thucydides. The trap was believing CCP propaganda.
except he got it backwards - here the newcomer is waning
I believe you're one of the most intellectually sharp people I've ever followed. Your ability to explain complex issues with clarity is remarkable. I truly admire your mind.
"The Thucydides Trap." A clever hook. Thank goodness for attention spans longer than three minutes.
So, what you are saying is that I can sleep well tonight? LOL! Thank you, for the 100th time, for making this understandable!
Thank you for this articulate summary!
Interesting and thoughtful take on this - thank you 🙏
Xi (and China in general) does not do anything in the diplomatic realm by accident
This entire visit was a very carefully-crafted show aimed at an Asian audience with a very clear “suite” of goals:
Play to Trump’s ego in terms of pageantry, knowing that this would keep him distracted (as his social media posts afterwards demonstrated)
Carefully and subtly place Trump in the role of “supplicant” [edited to add: it is absolutely not an accident that “orange chicken” was a part of the banquet menu - a not-very-subtle reference to TACO]
Use economic smoke-and-mirror “promises” to gain diplomatic ground vis-a-vis Taiwan specifically, and Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific region more broadly
In terms of those specific goals, I’m calling the summit a “win” for China
Nvidia is locked out of the Chinese market (which can honestly be read as both good and bad)
Boeing was banking on the sale of 500 jets, and got a very vague (at best) promise of 200. Trump announced the 200 figure as a win, while the market was punishing Boeing both for not getting the 500 sale and for not getting anything actually *binding* even for the 200 jets promised
Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea were watching this all play out in light of the US drawing down munitions in Asia to support the war in Iran while also putting an arms sale to Taiwan on ice
The ASEAN countries saw this as China flexing their regional soft-power muscles while the US continues to back away in both economic and military terms
In purely propaganda terms, China wins this round, regardless of the accuracy (or not) of the Thucydides framing Xi is so fond of
I am no fan of China’s regime by any stretch. I *do* have a grudging respect for their ability to exercise soft power and diplomatic influence without (so far) actually firing a shot.
If China “wins” in the region, it won’t be because they beat the US in a military face-off - they don’t want *that* war any more than we do. If they win, it will be because of US political short-sightedness, indifference, and diplomatic isolation resulting from a chaotic (at best) foreign policy
I enjoyed reading this article, and learning more about this topic. Thanks for your work.
“Consider what the framework asks Americans to believe in May 2026, and then consider the facts on the ground. Trump arrived in Beijing accompanied by Elon Musk, Tim Cook, Larry Fink, and Boeing’s Kelly Ortberg, the visible cohort of American technological and industrial dominance. The economic mass he brought into the room is staggering. “
Joe Biden on the other hand arrived in China accompanied by his dopey son Hunter. Let that settle in.
Surely Xi could have come up with something from Confucius. Or Sun Tzu. Or even the Tao te Ching.
I think Victor Davis Hanson is one of the most amazing people in our country. He is one of the few people I would believe anything he says.
Would someone enlighten me? If we are headed toward a $32.4 trillion GDP, why are we $37T in debt? Why are we in debt at all? Why do we give money to countries that hate us, and why are we giving any money to anyone? I read that our daily debt is $1.6 billion. Why? No more money to anyone.
Bill Clinton, despicable as he is, left us with a balanced budget. Are the Republicans incapable of that?
Off track — why is the Air Force going to buy thousands of radios because two pilots recently crashed? Would not a hundred suffice?
Inquiring minds want to understand.
“Bill Clinton, despicable as he is, left us with a balanced budget. Are the Republicans incapable of that?”
Setting aside the myth of Clinton’s balanced budget for a minute - Rush Limbaugh explained that farce on the radio decades ago - I would point out that democrats were not actively trying to assassinate the President for working with Republicans.
The Balanced Budget Act of 1997 followed on the heals of revenue expansion due to the 1990s dot-com technology boom, and the defense spending cuts made possible by the end of the Cold War/collapse of the Soviet Union - i.e. the peace dividend.
However, while the government ran a surplus on paper, the national debt itself actually continued to grow. Those surpluses only offset the publicly held debt, but the total gross national debt continued to increase under Clinton.
Speaking of despicable democrats, the last 47 years of Iranian terror can be laid squarely at the feet of Jimmy Carter. While the short attention span main stream media is complaining about the current cost of a gallon of gasoline, not one of them is asking about the catastrophically colossal cost of Carter kicking off the Iranian Islamic Revolution in the first place.
Thanks, Shawn, for the explanation. I was not listening to Rush in the 90s, so I would have missed his explanation of Clinton’s budget.
I do remember how gas was rationed during Carter’s term, and we could only buy it on alternate days, depending on the last number of our license plate. His presidency was a nightmare. He was such a phony that when he travelled, he would carry an empty suitcase to make him look humble.
It was terrible that they held 66 Americans hostage for 444 days, and how they were released the day Reagan was inaugurated.
Trump put himself in a box with his fake Iran war and trying to find a way out of it. Even going to China and asking Xi Jinping for help.
Spot on. And I hope you saw my piece on this:
https://www.rodmartin.org/p/quick-thoughts-summit-wins-xis-thucydides/
Your latest U.S.-China piece is next on my list this morning, Rod.
Thanks!